Goal-kicking:
It says something when your success rate is 84% but that’s not even good enough for a top five place in the RaboDirect Pro12 sharp shooting stakes – but put a red jersey on Leigh Halfpenny’s back and he’s one of most feared kickers in world rugby.
The Cardiff Blues full-back amassed 49 of the 79 points the British & Irish Lions scored against the Wallabies this summer and he is just six points shy of scoring 300 for his country. The Boks don’t concede many tries – except when they are facing the All Blacks – so Halfpenny’s pin-point accuracy could be crucial to Wales’ cause.
Morne Steyn – a proven match winner – is the most capped Springbok fly-half of all time (with 51) and brings a vast amount of experience to the Boks. He has single-handedly won games with his deadly boot (scoring all 31 points to beat the All Blacks in 2009 jumps readily to mind). He holds the Test world record for the longest run of successful goal kicks (41) but shooting for goal at the Millennium Stadium is a different proposition to kicking at altitude in his homeland.
Midfield battle:
Something surely has to give between a rock and a hard place – two sets of centres made of granite with reputations of teak-tough defence.
Jaque Fourie (69 caps) has been recalled to the South Africa side to bolster the midfield alongside skipper Jean de Villiers. But has Heyneke Meyer shown too much faith in Fourie who hasn’t played international rugby for two years while playing in Japan?
The South African midfield will come face the Scarlets duo Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies. Some may suggest there isn’t much finesse on display among the quartet but that would be a tad harsh on the Welshmen. Davies has shown in the past he has soft hands and a subtle side to his game which belies his vast frame while Williams – along with Davies – are deceptively quick.
Front row:
While Wales has been famous for its fly-half production line in the past, South Africa’s more pragmatic approach to the game has seen them produce endless mean machines in the bump and grind department. Uncapped Stormers prop Frans Malherbe is tipped for big things, but he faces a baptism of fire when he comes face to face with Wales’ Gethin Jenkins.
Jenkins is on the verge of becoming just the fourth player to reach 100 caps for Wales. Tomorrow’s clash will be Jenkins’ 99th appearance for his country to bring him one short of the magical milestone. Facing him will be rookie Malherbe who is at the opposite end of the spectrum as he will be making his international debut.
Touted as the next big thing, Malherbe will rely heavily on his front row colleagues Bismarck du Plessis and Tendai Mtawarira who have over 100 caps between them, to guide him through the game.
The breakdown
South Africa coach Heyneke Meyer has already targeted the breakdown as a key area to focus on as he guides his side to the 2015 World Cup. He’s already drafted in a breakdown consultant as the southern hemisphere giants attempt to fine tune their game for matches played in the northern hemisphere.
Meyer will rely heavily on poacher Francois Louw to combat the threat of Wales captain Sam Warburton as Willem Alberts and Duane Vermeulen are more known for their bullocking rampages rather than their smuggling abilities at the breakdown.
With Justin Tipuric on the bench, Wales have two world class tearaway smugglers in their match-day squad and their influence on proceedings could prove crucial to any hopes Wales have of securing their second victory over South Africa.
The lineouts
Welsh double act Bradley Davies and Alun Wyn Jones face the daunting prospect of taking on second row tower houses Flip van der Merwe and Eben Etzebeth.
Both hookers Richard Hibbard and Boks vice-captain Bismarck du Plessis will have to be on top of their game as each team seeks a chink in the armour of the opposition.
South Africa’s game plan is based heavily around their forward pack and it speaks volumes that Meyer is comfortable giving Toulon-based enforcer Bakkies Botha a rest while Etzebeth and van der Merwe are given their opportunity.
Davies and Jones have proven credentials at the highest level and aren’t accustomed to taking a backwards step themselves – whoever comes out on top in the heart of the engine room will have a major say in the final outcome.
Previous results:
2011: South Africa won 17-16 in Wellington
2010: South Africa won 29-25 in Cardiff
2010: South Africa won 34-31 in Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 20-15 in Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 37-21 in Pretoria
2008: South Africa won 43-17 in Bloemfontein
2007: South Africa won 34-12 in Cardiff
2005: South Africa won 33-16 in Cardiff
The teams:
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 James Hook, 23 Ashley Beck.
South Africa: 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Willem Alberts, 5 Flip van der Merwe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 JJ Engelbrecht, 23 Willie le Roux.
