The Springboks, smarting from losses to England and Italy this month, will pose a huge test for the hosts. However, here are four key areas were Wales can take advantage.
1. Half-time lead
South Africa have played 11 Tests this year, winning four and losing seven. While their aggregate points difference is only 75 – and would have been a lot less but for the 57-15 home defeat by New Zealand last month – one fact stands out. In 2016, South Africa have not won a Test match when they have been losing at half-time and have not lost when leading at the interval. Test matches are often won and lost in the final quarter, when the strength of replacements alter a game considerably, but if Wales can capitalise on early points in the first 40 minutes, this year’s results suggests they can earn the win.
2. Use the momentum
While their northern hemisphere players have been easing into domestic and European seasons in November, their southern counterparts have been engaged in fierce competition in the Rugby Championship. After adjusting to Test rugby after a significant break, Wales are hitting their stride following hard-fought victories against two talented sides in Argentina and Japan. South Africa have been on the end of a heavy defeat against England and a first-ever loss to Italy, a performance strewn with errors. Wales can capitalise on Springboks uncertainty.
3. Minimise errors
South Africa are built around a hugely physical pack that carry the ball well and offload freely, as well as contest the breakdown with ferocity. Their biggest weapon, though, has been the metronomic kicking of Morne Steyn, Elton Jantjies, or Pat Lambie. In this year’s Rugby Championship, New Zealand scored 38 tries and kicked only 6 penalties; Australia touched down for 13 tries and kicked 12 penalties, Argentina notched 11 tries and kicked 18 penalties. South Africa scored only eight tries but kicked 19 penalties – no team was as reliant on
forcing opposition mistakes to register points in the Rugby Championship. If Wales can keep their infringements to a minimum, South Africa have to respond with tries, an area where they’ve struggled this year.
4. Use their experience
In 31 matches between the two sides, Wales have only won two, the second coming in a tense 12-6 win two years ago in Cardiff. Nearly all of Wales’s starting XV from that match are in the current squad – only Taulupe Faletau is missing because of injury. Captain Sam Warburton was outstanding that day with 18 tackles, Leigh Halfpenny kicked all 12 points and Jonathan Davies ran for 44m and beat three defenders. That experience will be key if Wales are to finish the 2016 Under Armour series on a high.
