Back-to-back home defeats suffered by league leaders Newport threw the Blue & Blacks a lifeline and any kind of victory this week will take them to the top of the table with one game left to play.
When Newport lost to Merthyr it left Cardiff with three games to play and needing three bonus-point wins to guarantee them the title. They picked up the first of those five-pointers in Swansea last weekend and now face Pontypridd and Merthyr at home.
Newport only have one game to go in the league, at Carmarthen Quins, but are also involved in the Indigo Group Premiership Cup final on Sunday, 24 April against Aberavon at Principality Stadium. Now their hopes of clinching a league and cup double have been taken out of their hands.
“Newport have played some fantastic rugby this season. They have kept together a strong core group of players and deserve a huge amount of credit,” said Burnell.
“But in my eyes the league is now Cardiff’s to lose. We’ll head to the Arms Park to do our best to try to spoil their party, but they now must be the favourites to take the title.
“Until RGC and Merthyr took them down, Newport were unbeaten and flying high. Everything was in their own hands.
“What those two defeats showed is how competitive the Premiership can be, even though there are clubs with vastly different resources playing in the league. We went up to RGC last weekend and were very much in the game at 12-10 at the interval.
“Then we made some silly errors in the second half and lost 40-10. If we do the same at Cardiff then we will lose by even more, which means there will be a certain fear factor within our team to drive them on.”
Cardiff will have a much changed back line from the team that beat Swansea 27-20 and welcome back skipper and No 8 Morgan Allan. The only other change in their pack sees James Richards move up from blindside flanker to lock in place of Rhys Ansty.
Dan Fish switches from wing to outside half and will have Jamie Hill as his half-back partner. Schoolboy star Harrison James takes over from Max Llewellyn at centre and James Harries features on the wing with Tom Habberfield on the other.
“It was heartbreaking when COVID hit two seasons ago and we were on top of the table. It had been such a long time since Cardiff had been in that position and we felt we had the momentum to get us over the line,” said Cardiff head coach Steve Law.
“Now we have the chance to pick up where we left off and it would be really sweet to nip in a steal the title from Newport after they beat us four times this season for the first time in their history. We know what we’ve got to do, but we’re not expecting any favours from either Ponty or Merthyr.
“You couldn’t have asked for a better run in to the end of the season with so much jeopardy in the equation and two massive home derby games for us. We can’t think about bonus-points, or how Newport are going to fare at Carmarthen, we just have to concentrate on winning both games.
“We know we are going to have to be better in dealing with our own ball in the contact area against Ponty and we have tweaked what we are going to do. It promises to be a great derby night.”
There will be another big derby match at St Helen’s, where Swansea host Llanelli, on the same night. The visitors will be hoping to pick up a win that will give them the chance to finish ahead of their biggest rivals, who will be completing their campaign.
On Good Friday, bottom of the table Bridgend host Aberavon, while fourth placed Carmarthen Quins can leapfrog RGC if they can overcome Llandovery. Both those games are 2.30pm kick-offs.
You can watch matches live on the S4C Clic player on any smart device or computer, by going to www.s4c.cymru/clic, or by downloading the S4C Clic App; from App Store on an Apple device, or Google Play on an Android device. If you have a Smart TV or Smart TV Device (such as Amazon Fire TV Stick), you can watch the game via the S4C YouTube channel.
The games will also be shown on the S4C Chwaraeon Facebook page, at www.facebook.com/s4cchwaraeon, the WRU Facebook page, www.facebook.com/welshrugbyunion, or on S4C’s YouTube channel, at www.youtube.com/s4c.
