Since suffering a bruising defeat to South Africa in the first of this year’s Dove Men Series internationals, Wales have got things back on track nicely with a couple of solid wins. The final Test of the year sees the Wallabies come to town and they’ve also bounced back well since losing their first game of their tour.
It looks like it’s going to be a close run affair and the odds supplied by Paddy Power, official betting partner of the Welsh Rugby Union, paint exactly that picture. Wales are Evens to win Saturday’s game and 10/11 to win with a +1 Handicap.
There’s been less than a converted try between the two teams in five of the last six meetings. The last three games have been particularly tense, with the total winning margin from those three games coming to five points – or an average of 1.7 points per game. Sadly, Wales have found the unwelcome habit of coming out on the wrong side of those wafer-thin margins, but it’s clear they’re more than able to give the Wallabies a run for their money.
Based on the closeness of recent matches, backing Wales to win by 1-5 points at 4/1 looks like the sensible shout. The Welsh are more than capable of beating Saturday’s visitors and if they do, they’re unlikely to do so by a big margin. Taking the Alternative Winning Margin of Wales to win by 1-10 points may also sound like a good idea considering the added leeway it gives should Warren Gatland’s men take advantage of an Australian side at the end of their long southern hemisphere season. On the Alternative Handicap, you have the option of backing Wales -5 points at 15/8, something that could prove worthwhile considering the closeness of recent encounters.
For a long time, Shane Williams was the chief Welsh tormentor of the Wallabies but now it’s time for another wing wizard to step into his boots. George North has managed one try in five appearances against the Aussies and he’ll be desperate to improve on that this time around.
He’s already touched down once in the Dove Men Series and he’s 11/1 to score the first try on Saturday. His wing partner, Alex Cuthbert, also has one try against the Aussies from five matches. He’s the 9/1 joint favourite to be the First Tryscorer on Saturday. Interestingly, Ryan Jones is the last Welshman to score a try against Australia, back in 2012. That represents half of his international try collection, but he’s a tempting 17/2 to score any time on Saturday.
