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Wales’ last win over the Springboks came back in 1999 when the Millennium Stadium got its first taste of international rugby. But despite the long wait, Paddy Power, official betting partner of the Welsh Rugby Union, give Saturday’s hosts a good chance of claiming victory in the Dove Men Series opener. The Welsh are 13/10 to win the game and a tempting 10/11 to win with a +3 point handicap.
There’s no getting away from the fact bare stats don’t paint a pleasant picture for Saturday’s hosts. It’s been 14 years and 13 games since Wales last beat the Boks, but scratch the surface and we soon see that Warren Gatland’s men have been knocking at the door of bringing an end to that sequence of defeats. The average margin of defeat in the nine meetings between the 2000/01 and 2007/08 seasons was 17 points, but in the four games since the 2008/09 season, that has fallen to 3.25 points with the agonising one point defeat at the last World Cup summing up the thin margin between success and failure.
Recent history suggests that if Wales are to win, it’ll be by a narrow margin. Wales to win by 1-5 points at 9/2 looks an interesting bet. The last four South Africa wins have fallen within that range so if Wales to tip the scales in their favour, we can expect it to be by a similarly wafer thin margin. Backing Wales -3 points on the Alternative Handicap at 15/8 is a similar type of bet, albeit one that allows some flexibility if the hosts were able to pull a few more points clear of the Boks at the Millennium Stadium.
Given the explosive start to his career against the Springboks, George North is a major attacking threat and obvious tryscoring option. He’s 11/1 to score the first try of the match and 5/1 to score Wales’ first try of the match. Toby Faletau touched down for Wales the last time they played the Boks and he’s 13/2 to score a try at anytime in Saturday’s match.
