Wales ultimately couldn’t bring a run of defeats against South Africa to an end last weekend but considering the misfortunes the hosts suffered in the opening half hour, keeping pace with the Boks for as long as they did was an achievement in itself.
The repercussions of last Saturday will be felt again this week with a long list of injuries but even allowing for some high profile absentees, Warren Gatland’s team are expected to have enough strength in depth to claim a win. At odds of 1/5, Wales are the heavy favourites to win and 10/11 to do so with a -9 point handicap.
That’s not to say Wales can take the game lightly. Over the years, these two teams have given us some cracking battles. It’s a rivalry in which Wales have the upper hand, but not to the point of dominance.
In the history of the fixture, Wales have won 10 games to Argentina’s six with one draw. Wales have won three of the last four matches, but the fact that Argentina won four of the previous five suggests it’s not going to be easy. And Argentina’s stats aren’t based entirely on beating jaded Welsh teams visiting Argentina at the end of the long northern hemisphere season. They’ve also done well on Welsh turf. In three full Test visits to the Millennium Stadium since the turn of the century, the Pumas have won twice, most recently with a shock win last year. Caution is clearly advised.
Recent form is less encouraging for the visitors however. Last week’s defeat to England means it’s now 11 games without a victory for a team ranked in the IRB’s top 10. Wales’ two most recent Test wins over Argentina came by 17 points and 15 points respectively and even allowing for their injuries troubles, there’s good reason to think Wales can cover the handicap. A winning margin bet of Wales to win by 11-15 points at 5/1 looks to be in and around the right ballpark while the option of backing them to win by 11-20 points at 3/1 in the Alernative Winning Margin betting offers slightly more leeway.
Alun-Wyn Jones is an interesting outsider for a Tryscorer bet. Two of his seven international tries have come against the Pumas and he’s 11/1 to make it a career hat-trick with a try at anytime in the game. A more obvious choice however is George North. The winger scored a try in his last appearance against Argentina and he’s 7/1 favourite to score the first try on Saturday.
If you’re a fan of fairytale debuts – and Wales have had a few – then Cory Allen is 12/1 to be First Tryscorer and 11/4 to touch down at any point on his international debut.
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